Electric vehicles have surged from 0.4% of the total vehicle parc in 2016 to nearly 18% as of June 2023, but uptake will have to increase dramatically before 2030 to support the government’s ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles.
However, other countries have proven that it can be achieved, with EVs now making up 90% of all new vehicles in Norway.
“Can that same trajectory happen in the UK?” asked Paul Sell, Director of Trend Tracker. “Yes, it’s possible.”
Paul was speaking during ARC360’s specialist EV event, EV-olution, which took place at the Manufacturing Technology Centre, Coventry, sponsored by Thatcham Research and ControlExpert, along with ARC360 Corporate Partners: BASF, CAPS, Copart, Entegral, Enterprise, Mirka, Nationwide Vehicle Recovery Assisatnce, S&G Response, and Solera Audatex, and Partners: Gemini Accident Repair Centres, Repairify, and Prasco UK.
Recharge
However, to achieve this growth the market needs to recharge itself after stalling recently as a result of high prices, poor public infrastructure and range anxiety.
Paul revealed that there were 37,261 public charge points in the UK in 2022, up from just 6,500 in 2016, with more than 8,600 new charge points installed in the last 12 months alone. Meanwhile, the government invested £1.6bn last year with the ambition of driving that number up to beyond 300,000 by 2030.
Improving the public infrastructure is essential, said Paul, to supporting EV growth.
He explained, “EVs are cheaper to run than petrol or diesel models if you can charge at home. But if you’re travelling you need access to rapid chargers, and they are still a lot more expensive than petrol or diesel. So we’re going to need those 300,000 charge points to quell people’s range anxiety.”
Repairs
For the automotive aftermarket, EV repair volumes remain small. They comprise just five per cent of the total market – although this rises to 16% among models under three years old – with Tesla, MG, BMW, and Volkswagen accounting for the majority of repairs.
However, on average, repair costs are comparable to those of their petrol and diesel counterparts, with fewer parts involved in EV repairs offset by higher (£2 per hour average) labour costs.
Unsurprisingly, London remains the runaway hotspot for EV repairs, although Paul predicts this will change as more and more cities introduce green air zones. This will make EVs a more cost-effective option, driving adoption beyond the capital.
Future
While there remains challenges, a tipping point has been reached and EVs are on their way to becoming the dominant powertrain on UK roads.
The 2030 deadline is looming, and Paul believes it is unlikely that any future government will be prepared to back away from that now.
He said, “The 2030 road to zero isn’t up for negotiation. We have already seen significant government investment in EVs and whoever is in power, if they feel it’s not heading the right way they will have to make more changes, with the biggest changes probably coming in energy costs and infrastructure.”
ARC360’s specialist EV-olution event was sponsored by Thatcham Research and ControlExpert, along with ARC360 Corporate Partners: BASF, CAPS, Copart, Entegral, Enterprise, Mirka, Nationwide Vehicle Recovery Assistance, S&G Response, and Solera Audatex, and Partners: Gemini Accident Repair Centres, Repairify, and Prasco UK.
