Trend Tracker launches 2020-2023 market report

Trend Tracker has launched its latest report: Emerging from Covid-19 – The UK Vehicle Body Repair and Motor Insurance Market 2020-2023.

The report is built on the solid foundations laid out in previous mfbi and Trend Tracker reports with the addition of a complete round-up of the impact the Covid-19 pandemic has had across the market. 

This brand-new edition of the biennial report runs to 230 pages with over 100 tables and charts, and includes:

  • Market value and volume trends
  • Numbers of independent and franchised bodyshop outlets, trends in bodyshop numbers
  • Analysis of 13.6 million estimates for cars ultimately repaired to investigate repairs by vehicle make
  • A conservative forecast to 2023 taking account of industry trends over the last decade and the macroeconomic conditions following the Covid-19 pandemic

Alongside the report and with the pace of change like never before, Trend Tracker has developed a ‘members area’ on its website where it will publish regular updates on the UK body repair and motor insurance sectors. For a limited time, purchasers of the report will be offered a free 12-month membership as part of the package.

The latest report is currently available at a special ‘pre-order’ discounted rate of £995 and will be published by the end of November.

To secure your copy and to be amongst the first to receive the very latest market information, please order here.

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CAPS data shows volumes steady in October

The CAPS Claims Analysis Report for month ending October 2020 has highlighted a steady market with a one per cent increase in unique claims, whilst supply chain transmissions dipped by five per cent.

The CAPS monthly exchange analysis report is measured as a % of claims against January 2020 CAPS exchanged volumes. Analysis shows the trend of claims exchanged within the CAPS platform during Covid-19 restrictions and up to the current month to date 2020.

During the second lockdown, CAPS will provide a weekly analysis including regional variance which it aims to publish on the Tuesday of each week.

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PM announces new four-week national lockdown

England is to enter into a new four-week national lockdown from Thursday 5 November until Wednesday 2 December with the key message being for people to ‘stay at home’.

The government is taking the following action:

•             Requiring people to stay at home, except for specific purposes.

•             Preventing gathering with people you do not live with, except for specific purposes.

•             Closing certain businesses and venues.

A full list of business closures is yet to be published and set out in law but it is expected that petrol stations and garages carrying out MOTs, services and repairs will again be classed as ‘essential’ and therefore allowed to remain open.

Vehicle showrooms and auction houses have been ordered to close.

In relation to traffic volumes, the advice is to avoid travelling in or out of your local area, with individuals encouraged to reduce the number of journeys made apart from situations such as travelling to work where this cannot be done from home, and travelling to education and for caring responsibilities.

The government also announced the furlough scheme – Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme – has been extended with up to 80% of employees wages, up to £2500 a month, again covered by the scheme where necessary.

The guidance states: ‘Employers small or large, charitable or non-profit are eligible and because more businesses will need to close, they will now be asked to pay just National Insurance and Pensions contributions for their staff during the month of November – making this more generous than support currently on offer.’

The Job Support Scheme will now not be introduced until after Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme ends.

Meanwhile, Scotland’s new Covid restrictions are now in force. The regional system has five levels but each of the country’s 32 local authorities has initially been graded between levels one and three. People under level three restrictions can make only essential journeys outside their council area.

The new lockdown and restrictions are clearly a major concern to businesses across the nations. A snapshot survey on the ARC360 webinar on Wednesday 14 October highlighted that 75% of industry stakeholders believed the three-tier system of local restrictions would have a moderate to significant impact on the sector. And with only 33% of those who tuned in to the ARC360 webinar on Wednesday 28 October having experienced an increase in volumes in the second half of the month, undoubtedly further challenges lie ahead.

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Building a sustainable future

Volume will remain the name of the game going forward, and repairers have been urged to hedge their bets rather than relying on a single income stream to deliver sustainable levels.

That advice is also relevant to bodyshops who are moving away from general repairs to more specialist sectors, as a result of the growing tech built into vehicles and the continuous investment that demands.

Cautious optimism

Stuart Sandell assistant vice president, sales UK and Ireland, Enterprise Holdings, said, ‘Enterprise is linked to the travel sector and that is obviously really unstable. But we’re looking forward to quarter four with cautious optimism because we’re diverse. We’ve seen one channel dry up, but because we’ve got multiple channels we’ve still been able to grow. That can easily apply to bodyshops. If you’re reliant on one income stream, you can struggle if demand in that sector dries up.’

He explained that even niche repairers can build diversity into their business model by handling a mix of jobs from multiple customers.

Stuart was speaking during series 2, episode 5 of the ARC360 webinar themed ‘Creating a sustainable future’, where he was joined on the panel by Luke Stafford, sales manager – new business, BASF, and Richard Ketley, head of network, Innovation Group.

Volumes

That volumes will ultimately dictate success or failure wasn’t disputed – ‘Volume is what keeps the lights on,’ Luke said, ‘without repairs going into shops we might as well all go home.’

But, worryingly, 45% of respondents to a live poll reported that volumes had decreased slightly or significantly in the past fortnight. Conversely, 33% noted a slight increase. That dichotomy is perhaps a result of regional lockdowns and underlines the unpredictable impact Covid-19 is still having on the market – and that volatility might be even greater than these figures suggest when the natural spike in claims after the clocks change (eight per cent, according to Enterprise) begins to wane.

Sustainability

However, despite these worrying signs, there is still plenty of evidence that lessons have been learned since March and many businesses are more sustainable now and better able to cope with such fluctuations.

Luke said, ‘There are quite a lot of exciting things happening at the moment. Everyone was forced into a period of self-assessment and now are taking the lessons of lockdown and implementing them, so I think this period has been a real catalyst for change, especially around technology. A lot of projects have been started that were being talked about for years. That’s a real positive.’

He continued, ‘We’re all expected to do more with less now, less energy consumption, less CO2, less waste. At BASF we’ve been pushing the environmental side of sustainability for a long time and our next solutions coming to the market in next few months are designed specifically to increase throughput and reduce environmental impact.

‘We’ve also been building more strategic partnerships with organisations who have similar values to us, not necessarily those that are going to help us sell a tin of paint. That will continue, and I think the whole industry is communicating more.’

Differences

Sustainability though means different things to different businesses. Another poll identified business agility as the number one focus (35%), with improved efficiency (16%) and growth (14%) also highlighted. Surprisingly, just nine per cent said it was about better use of technology.

Richard said, ‘From a repairer’s point of view, business agility is crucial and we are adapting and trying to change. Some are just trying to weather the storm at the moment but a lot of groups are looking around for opportunities and acquiring other sites.

‘What we’re doing is investing in technology around triage to get the right vehicle to the right repairer, and we’ve introduced remote audits so the audit team has more time to support to repairers, almost in a consultancy role.

‘We’re also holding weekly calls with repairers and last month ran six webinars to talk them through certain changes. We’re trying to engage with our supply chain more and feed information back and forth. We’re all in this together and three years down the line I’d like to see more technology but also a lot more open conversations so we can take learnings from what we’ve gone through to build a better industry.’

Sustainable mix

That combination of people and technology was something Stuart also identified as fundamental to a sustainable future.

He said, ‘Sustainability is about having a plan, but also being able to react to the environment around you. It’s clear the environment will change with automated transactions, cars instigating claims, and a lot more hybrid working. So, a mix of good technology and good people will be really important. You can’t have great tech and bad people, or great people and bad tech.’

That raised the skills conundrum again, with Luke identifying the need for new faces in business leadership areas, where he fears a growing gap is opening up. And with the industry changing as rapidly as it is – 88% of respondents to a third online poll predicted it would change moderately to significantly in the next few years – those leaders might have an even greater role to play in helping business find their own roles in a sustainable future.

ARC360, in association with I Love Claims, is supported by corporate partners BASF, BMS, Copart, EMACS, Entegral, Enterprise Rent-a-Car, Mirka, Nationwide Vehicle Recovery Assistance, S&G Response, Sherwin Williams and CAPS; partners asTech, The Green Parts Specialists, Indasa, and Innovation Group; and strategic partners AutoRaise; NBRA; RepairTalks; and TrendTracker.

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Feature: Tech-tonic plates shifting beneath out feet

It is not easy to understand how the world is changing while it’s still in the midst of that change. In fact, many of the greatest disrupters in history were introduced with little hype or fanfare, and it was only in hindsight that their influence became clear.

What is clear though, is that seismic change always follows seismic events. You only have to look at the leaps forward in innovation during the world wars of the last century to appreciate that.

World War One innovation:

  • Blood banks
  • Zips
  • Stainless steel
  • Tea bags

World War Two innovation:

  • Penicillin
  • Radar
  • Jet engines
  • The ballpoint pen

Potential to change

Of course, the coronavirus is catastrophic on a different scale, but there is no doubt its potential to change society – both in the way we do business and in human behaviour – is deeply profound. Remote working, transportation and communication are just three areas that have already been hugely altered as a result of the pandemic, possibly for ever, and across all industries managers and owners have been scrambling to catch up.

Underpinning the change has been technology, and it’s hardly surprising that businesses have had to rapidly accelerate their shift towards digitalisation in order to, A: continue trading with staff at home and, B: follow their customers online. In fact, a McKinsey business survey found that investment in technology has increased more than any other area since Covid-19, and that whether a company had made that investment or not was the single greatest indicator of whether it had coped well or badly during the crisis.

The survey found the digitalisation of internal and external operations had jumped forward by three to four years, while the share of digital or digitally enabled products had raced forward seven years in as many months.

Already available

These findings were supported by Boston Consulting Group, which added that in most cases the investment wasn’t in new technology, but technology that was already available before the pandemic struck.

Karalee Close, managing director, senior partner and global leader of BCG’s Technology Advantage Practice, said, ‘Many businesses are re-shaping their tech spending as a direct consequence of the pandemic. Covid has crystalised their thinking and forced them to make fast decisions about which technologies to adopt now.’

  • More than 60% of global customers have changed their shopping habits because of Covid-19
  • Digital sales spiked 66% during lockdown and has settled at +7%
  • Global online sales of luxury good rose 170% in August and September
  • 80% of brands don’t have an online loyalty programme
  • Online-only retailer Ocado named UK’s fastest growing brand of 2020

It means everything

The question is, what does this mean for the automotive aftermarket? It means everything. Whether operating a single site or a larger network of bodyshops, the backbone of your business is technology. The entire claims process is driven by technology, from FNOL, image capture, claims triage, engineering and management platforms, and its influence is only going to become greater.

While agile in many ways, the sector is traditionally slow in exploiting the gains from technology. That is often attributed to a lack of expertise, but it could also be because the sector is dominated by entrepreneurs who are reluctant to invest without a strong business case to support it. However, that was the past. The Covid-19 crisis has forced these decisions upon many businesses and having seen the benefits first-hand, none is taking a backward step now.

Kevern Thompson, commercial manager at CAPS, said, ‘We have been seeing a massive increase in the adoption of technology. I feel like I’m sitting right at the heart of the industry because we’re facilitating that connectivity. Efficiency, downtime and key-to-key times can all be improved by technology and now is the time to stretch the limits of what we can do to future-proof the industry.’

Easy wins

And it doesn’t have to be daunting; there are a number of relatively easy wins out there. The most obvious one is through digital communication platforms. Their usage has gone inter-galactic in 2020 and platforms such as Zoom, Microsoft Teams and, more lately Google Meet, are emerging as the tea bags of this crisis (tea bags existed before WW1 but were only widely adopted by society after being shipped to German troops on the front line).

Industry Insights is just one example. Steve Thompson, founder and managing director, hosts weekly calls with all Connect Solutions partners, and throughout the crisis has invited specialist guests to speak about key topics and answer any questions.

Steve said, ‘We used these mediums pre-Covid but not as effectively as we do now and I am certain this will continue post Covid-19. I appreciate it’s not quite the same as a physical meeting, but the benefits far outweigh the negatives.’

He added, ‘Our slogan is ‘we are greater than the sum of our parts’, this has never been more accurate than during Covid-19 and I am confident that this will now become part of our modus operandi.’

They are not the only ones to have spotted the efficiency gains of going online instead of on the motorway, as these figures prove:

  • Daily Zoom users rose from 10 million in December 2019 to 300 million in April 2020
  • Microsoft Teams daily users rose from 32 million in March 2019 to 75 million in April 2020
  • Google Meet added three million users a day to its service during April

Remote

Elsewhere, remote assessments have become a mainstay in many markets as a result of a huge shift in customer attitude towards digital rather than face-to-face solutions. In Germany the percentage of assessments carried out remotely has risen from 20% to 60% during the pandemic, while in America it’s over 80%.

Remote working is also here to stay and even insurers, traditionally cumbersome and lethargic when it comes to change, have revealed a new level of dynamism.

Dave Thompson, director of claims, Tesco Underwriting said, ‘We implemented seismic changes in the space of 10 days and I actually think most insurers were surprised at how quickly they could move to satisfy the demands of colleagues, in terms of home working, while still serving their customers.

‘This has definitely accelerated our plans around a digitised workforce and remote working, and I think now all organisations with large numbers of staff in a large office environment will have to think about their own operating models and location strategies. We’ll definitely see a significant increase in the flexible workforce.’

Time

But while these are generic, industry-wide changes, many of the process improvements seen have been molecular, business-specific, and come about simply because managers have had the time to look for them. Under normal conditions, bodyshops are so consumed with daily tasks that large-scale disruption is virtually impossible.

However, with volumes nosediving from late March, the sudden lull provided an opportunity for forensic examinations of all processes and practices, and many businesses have emerged leaner, more efficient and more flexible.

Fix Auto Luton is a case in point. Already one of the network’s most successful sites, it would have been easy to adopt an ‘if it’s not broke’ approach. However, manager Mo Givian wasted little time using the sudden cessation of work to make sweeping changes with a massive revamp of the workshop, replacing a 32-year-old oven, installing a space-saving ramp, servicing the equipment, and rewiring the building.

The gas bill is now down 60%, the electricity bill is 40% lower and the workforce, he says, is rejuvenated and confident in the future in the business – all contributing to record figures in June and July.

He said, ‘The lockdown was a real positive for us. We just needed two or three weeks to make all the changes I knew were needed, but we could never have done it normally. But because none of our work providers had any business for us, we were able to make the changes without losing business or upsetting our customers.

‘I’ve worked out we made a 40% saving by doing it during lockdown, but the reputational savings are immeasurable. It almost feels like a new start now, but without the start-up problems.’

Best ever

Distribution group GB Refinish is another example of a business that took a good thing and made it better. It enjoyed its best ever month in March and would likely have carried on as before had the pandemic not struck. However, founder John Barclay says the last six months have been the busiest of his working life and because of the improvements he made the business was better placed to take advantage or returning volumes.

A new telephone system, new livery and branding are the most visible changes – along with a large new client won in June – while John also decided to change the management system that was functional but dated.

He said, ‘It was ok, but it was long-winded and cumbersome. This new system will save time for our sales and admin teams and we’re eagerly looking forward to going live.’

All told, GB Refinish celebrated its best month in September, beating even March’s figures.

John said, ‘It’s actually been a really positive time for us – and I know why that is. We’ve not left a stone unturned. We’ve looked at everything we do in the business and made a number of changes.’

Not alone

They are far from alone. Across the sector companies have proved their agility by adapting to a new normal, identifying subsequent improvements and then implementing them. Paul Cunningham, commercial director at Fix Auto Dagenham, revealed how operating with a reduced workforce actually proved a positive as job roles were blurred and fresh eyes brought fresh ideas. Among the myriad changes is a new focus on multi-skilled staff in admin to save time and provide greater back-office flexibility.

Paul said, ‘We’ve already bought people a lot of time by introducing new processes and technology and we’re less stressed than we were before Covid-19. Now we’re looking to grow admin team and we’ve written out a new, broader job description. It’s about taking the positives and embedding them. There is an old adage that it takes three months to change. Not in this business.’

Still time

There may be a perception that the time to make all these changes has gone. But change is happening and the longer the wait the more difficult it will be. The genie is out of the bottle now and if the technological revolution has seemed fast recently, it’s likely to only accelerate.

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Ben extends its services to support those who face job losses

Automotive charity, Ben, is now providing support to industry people who have lost their jobs and who are at risk of losing their jobs.

Ben has seen a 52% increase in requests for support from April-September this year, which shows the impact that Covid-19 has had on the health and wellbeing of automotive industry people. In response to the challenges being faced by the industry, Ben has extended its services to provide much-needed support during these uncertain times.

As part of the new extended support, Ben is focusing on ‘Work, Health and Wellbeing’ and has developed online tools (available at www.ben.org.uk/work) as well as providing one-to-one support.

Ben’s new online tools offer guidance and self-help resources on the following areas:

•             Creating or updating a CV

•             Preparing for interviews

•             Finding the right job

•             Job searching

Ben’s support services team are also providing one-to-one support for people in the following ways:

•             Practical support for people who are looking for work

•             Information, advice & guidance for managing money and maximising benefits

•             Access to Ben’s digital platform, Silvercloud, and access to Ben’s Life-coaching programme to help improve confidence and motivation, which are commonly affected during periods of uncertainty related to employment

•             Signposting and linking affected individuals to third party support, including specialist recruitment consultants, as well as a free 3-month membership to the Institute of the Motor Industry (IMI) which provides training, resources and useful industry information.

Over the past few months, Ben has seen an increase in the number of people seeking support because of money worries, as well as concerns about job losses and employment. 

Rachel Clift, health & wellbeing director at Ben, said: “This has been an incredibly tough time for our industry and its people.

“We’re excited to be partnering with some fantastic organisations as part of this initiative to offer additional support to job seekers, including the IMI. We wish to thank our partners for their generous support which will make such a difference to people who are struggling right now.

“We want the industry and its people to know that Ben is here for them and can provide the support they need. These are really uncertain and testing times for many, but our new services can help provide the relevant support that automotive people need right now.”

Steve Nash, CEO of the IMI added: “The IMI is doing all it can to support people working in the industry at this challenging time. We are, therefore, delighted to be able to add our new three month free trial membership offer to the Ben Work, Health and Wellbeing services.  We know from the last few months that being part of the wider automotive community through IMI membership has helped many. Access to technical expertise and online learning tools, as well as topical information and practical training opportunities which should help those facing a change in their working circumstances to stay on top of the skills that will put them in the best position for new roles.”

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LV= first to support AutoRaise with emergency funding

LV= has furthered its partnership with AutoRaise – the industry skills charity – by being the first to assist with emergency funding in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

AutoRaise fundraising activity has been significantly impacted by the pandemic which prompted the charity to call on some of its existing partners to consider making an additional funding pledge.

LV= were the first to offer their support.

Bob Linwood, AutoRaise CEO, said, “In many ways, I wasn’t surprised at all when LV= offered a further contribution.

“LV= have stood shoulder-to-shoulder with us, totally understanding that the vehicle repair industry needs to invest in young people to create a sustainable workforce in the future. They have supported everything we have done, have even created their own initiatives to raise awareness of the charity’s aims and are always first to offer their support.

“Their whole management team, from Martin Milliner to Brian Hodge, Chris Payne, Michael Golding and their respective teams, absolutely get it.

Martin Milliner, LV=‘s GI claims director, said, “We totally believe in AutoRaise and the work that they carry out. We’ve supported from day one and a great example of their work showed recently in their intervention with apprentices being made redundant. I’m really impressed and very grateful for the work they do on behalf of the industry.”

Brian Hodge, director of motor customer claims, added, “Here at LV= we are incredibly proud of our long-standing association with AutoRaise and we have seen first-hand the impact they have made on new apprenticeship starts in our own repair network. We are acutely aware that our young people are the future and we all have a responsibility to ensure we support their development if we are to have a truly sustainable and capable industry to meet the ever changing needs of our customers.

“AutoRaise have been the catalyst for many of our approved repairers to adopt apprenticeship programmes and we need a fully functioning AutoRaise in our industry to ensure sustainability.

“I personally would urge every significant stakeholder in our industry to consider what their business model will look like in 5, 10, 20 years’ time with a continuing decline in numbers of qualified technicians in the industry. It’s a significant challenge and one we need to address collectively for the greater good.”

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Upbeat industry rising to the challenges

The prospects of a second Covid-19 wave and Brexit mean there are huge clouds of uncertainty on the horizon, but large sections of the incident repair aftermarket are moving forward with vigour and confidence.

While no one doubts the severity of the pandemic, both in the last six months and its potential to disrupt the next six, and Brexit remains a great unknown just weeks before exit, businesses in the sector have absorbed the crises, adapted, and in many ways are better prepared to tackle future challenges.

Upbeat tone

That was the often upbeat tone of series 2, episode 4 of the ARC360 webinar held in association with I Love Claims, which saw different corners of the industry represented by Paul Cunningham, commercial director, Fix Auto Dagenham; Kelvyn Waugh, managing director, Prasco UK; and Chris Weeks, executive director, NBRA.

Chris said, ‘Survival is about adapting and one thing you can say about this industry is it can adapt. You’d have thought about 30% of bodyshops would have gone bust by now, but it’s nothing like that. The industry has hit the reset button in the last few months. It’s looked at revenue and cost, it’s restructured to take advantage of the digital space, and in many ways is coming out of this stronger than ever.’

Expansion

Paul’s success with Fix Auto Dagenham is a good example of that. Volumes collapsed by 50% overnight when lockdown was imposed back in March. Plans for expansion were shelved and staff were furloughed.

However, the business has fought through the crisis. Staff and managers alike ‘got stuck in’, mixing roles and filling gaps, and the greater integration of the entire workforce lifted the lid on a series of process inefficiencies that have since been addressed. A new, large client in June added impetus to the recovery and now everyone has returned to work and volumes are back to around 90%.

Multi-skilled

Paul said, ‘One thing that’s really come to the fore is the multi-skilled aspect. When we talk about multi-skills we talk about paint, panel and MET, but it’s also about admin and soft skills, and from working closer together we’ve been able to ask, why do we do it like that? We’ve bought people a lot of time by introducing new processes and technology. Everyone has bought into it and the team is much stronger in terms of relationships because we’ve all had to pull together.’

The business expansion that was postponed six months ago is back on, and the improvements are here to stay.

Paul said, ‘We’ve had to be agile for 20 years so this is nothing new. There is an old adage that it takes three months to change. Not in this business.’

Despite that positive outlook, a second wave bringing local or national restrictions could again dampen enthusiasm, with a live online poll suggesting the three-tier system will have a significant (17%) or moderate (58%) impact on the repair sector.

And then there is the ‘B’ word.

Brexit

The UK will leave the EU at the end of this year, and what happens from then on depends largely on if a deal is agreed, and what that deal says. With reports veering wildly between optimism and pessimism for the outcome of negotiations, it is so far almost impossible to plan ahead.

Kelvyn said that Prasco, like many suppliers, is increasing range and stock to ensure that come 1 January 2021 it will still be able to support customers.

He said, ‘Most of our range comes from the Far East so we shouldn’t be greatly impacted. But we’ve been planning for this for two and a half years. Until we have a deal no one knows what the situation will be, but we’re taking steps to increase stock and range. We have about half a million pounds worth of product on the water at any one time.’

Disruption

From a repairer’s perspective, the key concern is disruption to the supply chain. The implications of that are myriad, with longer key-to-key times and surging costs of mobility chief among them.

Paul said, ‘We need the parts when we need them. Ultimately, that’s all we are worried about. If our key-to-key times go up our costs go up, the costs around mobility go up, and we just don’t have the space to have cars sitting here for longer periods.

‘We can try to cut costs in other ways, but we’ve been doing that for years and there’s not a lot of meat left on the bone. We’re looking at ways of reducing key-to-key times, such as right first time estimating and not bringing cars on site until they’re ready to shoot through the process, but we need to negotiate down those expected costs around mobility.’

Chris warned that a bad Brexit could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for the industry, and said a lot depends on a good trade deal.

Meanwhile, a second online poll found that only 20% of respondents were giving Brexit ‘high’ priority, with more than three quarters saying it was a medium (40%) or low (36%) priority for their business at the moment.

Skills

Possibly the greater worry is skills, with low volumes forcing many skilled people away from the sector. Although many repairers have been incredibly successful in retaining all their staff through the crisis, others have inevitably slimmed down or shut down, and with the furlough scheme ending this month and the government’s Job Support Scheme, which runs from 1 November for six months, described by Chris as ‘inadequate’, it’s very likely more people will lose their jobs in the coming weeks.

Chris said, ‘There will be a further exit of skilled staff in the next couple of months. The government scheme isn’t going to do the job for our industry and the truth is if you haven’t got enough work for your staff then you are better off letting them go. Sadly, that’s going to happen. So, the big concern is that when business does pick up again, we just won’t have the people because they will have left the industry.’

Paul concluded, ‘We weren’t able to bring apprentices in this year, but that is a big part of our strategy and next year we’re back on it. We know we need to invest.’

ARC360, in association with I Love Claims, is supported by corporate partners BASF, BMS, Copart, EMACS, Entegral, Enterprise Rent-a-Car, Mirka, Nationwide Vehicle Recovery Assistance, S&G Response, Sherwin Williams and CAPS; partners asTech, The Green Parts Specialists, Indasa, and Innovation Group; and strategic partners AutoRaise; NBRA; RepairTalks; and TrendTracker.

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CAPS reveals 16% uptick in claims volumes

CAPS – the Common Automotive Automotive Platform Standard – has highlighted a 16% uptick in claims volumes for the month ending September with volumes at 73%.

September’s increase is the second largest to date month-on-month with a 16% uplift from August which saw the market retract by seven per cent on July.

The south east of England is showing signs of greatest claims volumes with little under 70,000 exchanged, whilst the east of England represents the lowest volume at around 7,000.

The largest month-on-month increase in claims came in June when it rose by 25% over May.

Click here to view the full report.

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Feature: New beginnings

When the clock struck midnight on 31 December 2019, no one could have foreseen what 2020 had in store for us.

But within just a few months industry and individuals alike were rapidly adjusting to an entirely new reality as the Covid-19 pandemic spread across the world. Some sectors have been merely disrupted by the crisis, while others have been completely decimated. The automotive aftermarket sits somewhere in the middle, although the damage has still been extreme.

Volumes

The impact of lockdown in the UK was felt immediately in claims volumes. Prime Minister Boris Johnson imposed a nationwide lockdown on 23 March, and almost overnight volumes collapsed by about 80%. They continued to bump along at that base level for nearly two months, until a tentative upturn saw volumes climb to around 38% by late May. As restrictions were gradually lifted the slow recovery continued into the summer, and by mid-July much of the aftermarket was operating between 60% and 70% of normal levels.

Another uptick to around 80% occurred at the start of September as schools returned and government encouraged workers to return to the office, and it was widely accepted that volumes would plateau at that level until the end of the year.

Cautious

However, many remained cautious of these predictions and their circumspection has proven wise as coronavirus cases have risen sharply during September. Government has reversed its return-to-work advice, restrictions have been reintroduced across large swathes of the country – mainly London and the north – while the threat of a second national lockdown remains real.

As such, the strength of the recovery varies from region to region, and, according to Peter Cox, European motor claims procurement manager, QBE from sector to sector. He suggested that volumes were much slower to return in the commercial sector as fleet managers worried about supply chain issues delaying repairs.

He said, ‘It’s all a confidence issue. Fleets are reluctant to let go of their vehicles because of the perception they won’t get them back for a long time. So as long as the vehicle is still road legal they’re reluctant to have minor damage repaired.’

Anticipating the impossible

One thing is clear though – the virus is still a live issue and anticipating where the market will go in the near future is next to impossible.

Wayne Mason-Drust, managing director, Accident Express Group, said, ‘Volume repairers knew what they would get if they hit a certain number of jobs. I am struggling to understand how they will consistently hit those numbers, so I think they need to be fluid, with a 50% flex in capacity levels, from 70% to 120% with not too much stress.’

For a better understanding of how the pandemic has affected the sector this year, a series of industry surveys carried out by Trend Tracker, ARC360 and the NBRA are freely available for download

Global impact

Of course, the crisis has been damaging for the entire automotive industry. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has predicted that the UK will produce just below 885,000 cars this year, down 34% on 2019. This fall in car production, following the closure of factories in the spring, could cost manufacturers more than £9.5bn. So far more than 13,500 jobs have been lost in the sector, but the SMMT believes as many as one in six jobs could be under threat.

Taking a wider view, Sean Carey, president of SCG Management Consultants, believes that globally there will be 35 million less vehicle shipments this year. He estimates the cost to vehicles manufacturers at $166bn immediately, and the same again in lost aftersales services over the next seven or eight years.

Successes

Faced with these gloomy statistics, it’s hard to believe that some within the sector have bucked the trend and actually grown their businesses but it has been happening and here’s just a few examples:

  • React Accident Repair Group has opened a new site in Scunthorpe, creating 12 new jobs immediately, rising to 20.
  • The Vella Group has signed to take over a unit at Infrared Capital Partner’s Knowsley industrial complex on a 10-year lease.
  • iRG has built on January’s management buyout to open a new site in Birmingham.
  • Fix Auto UK’s first purpose-built repair centre is on course to be fully operational by November.
  • Activate Group is investing £15m to expand its bodyshop division, Activate Accident Repair, opening a further 15 sites and creating over 750 jobs.
  • Redde Northgate has taken over 77 of Nationwide Accident Repair Services’ 102 sites as well as a fleet of mobile repair vans, saving upwards of 2,300 jobs.

And many more besides have already or plan to take such action in the near future.

Technology

Looking behind these success stories, there is a common thread – each has approached the crisis with a positive mindset and used the slowdown in workload productively by assessing their wider business and making the sorts of efficiency savings that might have been too daunting with a full workshop.

An obvious opportunity for improvement has come in the greater use of technology. In many cases, this has not been about adopting new technology but simply making better use of the technology already available.

Influenced heavily by rules on social distancing, many of the efficiencies have come in the form of remote solutions such as:

  • Video conferencing
  • Home working
  • Remote assessments

Better use

Speaking in an exclusive ARC360 podcast, Sam Smith, who manages repair centres Fix Auto Keighley, Fix Auto Bradford and Fix Auto Leeds South, and is developing the new purpose-built site in Leeds, said, ‘We’ve made much better use of video chat since we people couldn’t meet up. That’s been a real help in looking after our management teams. Previously if we wanted to introduce something new we’d have to go to each site or book out a hotel for the morning, now we can all meet up once a month, even if it’s just for 10-15 minutes.’

He added, ‘All our engineers have tablets and one of the things we’re trying is engineering through tablet. So when a technician is stripping the vehicle they can go around it with a video camera, with the pictures going straight through to our central engineer, who can create an assessment. And the video is call is recorded, so they can go back and play it back. It’s also great for teaching.’

Remote

Meanwhile, digital solutions enabled many businesses to remain operational with staff at home. Although not always practical within a bodyshop environment, other sectors, such as insurance, have flourished.

Dave Thompson, director of claims, Tesco Underwriting said, ‘We were able to move unbelievably quickly. We implemented seismic changes in the space of 10 days and I actually think most insurers were surprised at how quickly they could move to satisfy the demands of colleagues in terms of home working while still serving their customers. This has definitely accelerated our plans around a digitised workforce and remote working, and I think now all organisations with large numbers of staff in a large office environment will have to think about their own operating models and location strategies. We’ll definitely see a significant increase in the flexible workforce.’

David Mills, head of motor fulfilment, Direct Line Group, agreed, ‘Remote working has worked a lot better than we envisaged and we’d certainly like to make it permanent for those who want it.’

Customer attitudes

In terms of remote assessments, the key driver has been customer attitudes. Before Covid-19, uptake was minimal largely because of customer reluctance. However, as the need to maintain social distance increased so did adoption. For example, as revealed on an ARC360 webinar, remote assessments have surged from 20% to 60% during the pandemic, while in the US now about 80% of vehicle damage assessments are remote.

Ian Thompson, group chief claims officer, Zurich Insurance, suggested the genie is out of the box now and consumer behaviour has forever been changed.

He said, ‘We will find a much more willing consumer base for automation. That will change the way we think about operating.’

Sam agreed. He said, ‘I see the whole claim being controlled through an app and the customer controlling the whole thing through their phone. That will happen. Then we can build services onto that for the customer to add other retail work they might want doing at the same time. The next step will be booking the job in on the app. It’s about removing the barriers to getting the car repaired as quickly as possible.’

Skills

But as the claims process evolves so too will the required skills. Already the pandemic has seen managers rely more heavily on multi-skilled technicians to keep the workshop going with only a skeleton staff, and many manager have spoken about building a more dynamic workforce going forward, either through upskilling or recruitment.

Andy Lawlor, business development director, Motofix, said, ‘People have found themselves in job roles they wouldn’t have normally been in and their ability to adapt has been a real take-home for me. So, going forward, we’ll look to have a far more dynamic, multi-skilled workforce with a real can-do attitude.’

Apprentices

That should be good news for apprentices, who can develop a versatile skillset and are also less susceptible to the virus because of their age. Dave Sargeant, managing director, Gemini ARC and chairman of AutoRaise, suggested they should be the first name on the teamsheet and Sam has also recognised the potential of investing in youth as the industry becomes ever-more tech-based.

He said, ‘We have to build better links with colleges and schools…but we’re not just asking for technicians. There is so much more to a bodyshop and as the schools get to know us we hope they’ll come to us and say, this person is really analytical, or this person is really good at building apps. Would you like to have a conversation with them? Because the software side is really interesting and we’re growing those teams all the time.’

Future

The last six months has certainly brought unprecedented disruption to an industry that was already changing quicker than many could keep pace with. However, the evolution is nowhere near finished – and possibly still getting started.

Dave suggested that much of what has happened so far has been tinkering around the edges as businesses fight their own immediate fires, and the telling inter-sector conversations won’t take place until the first quarter of next year.

Crossroads

If so that means the industry is approaching a crossroads and, as catastrophic as the crisis has been for many, it has the opportunity now to remake itself into a better, more sustainable version of itself. Not everyone will make that jump. Manufacturers are expected to skip a few development steps – particularly with regards ADAS – in order to regain lost ground and that will require even more investment from the aftermarket. But those who do have the rare chance to define their own ‘new normal’.

Richard Thorogood, owner partner and group director, Rainbow Bodyshop Group, said, ‘One thing this industry is full of is entrepreneurism. This is probably the biggest challenge so that spirit is more key than ever. But the building blocks of bodyshop people are to find solutions and if you have the hunger you’ll find a way through it. If you want to survive then you’ll find a way.’

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